Arlington Real Estate Through The Financial Crisis – Part 2

What Happened In Arlington Real Estate After The Expiration of The First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit?

Single Family Detached Homes


In part 2 of my brief series on Arlington Real Estate Through the Financial Crisis, I want to look at how the Arlington market responded to the Home Buyer Tax Credit, and it’s subsequent expiration. As with Part 1 of this series, this data only includes the detached, single family home market.

Once again, this post will require some reader participation with the chart below. And, yet again, I send my apologies to iPad users as the chart is in Flash.

Tracking The Average Prices in Arlington

If you go to the bottom chart of the three you will see that you can scroll from left to right to choose the date selection shown in detail above. Scroll back until you can see the April through November time frame. You will see that a rush from buyers toward the end of the home buyer tax credit in June does appear to have driven up prices, though it would be relatively normal for prices to rise around this time in a normal selling cycle, so it is difficult to know the full impact.

What is interesting is that inventory (area wide, not just in Arlington) spiked just as the home buyer tax credit was set to expire. Given the lag time between listing a home for sale and closing the sale I do not believe this was a rush from sellers to list their homes in time to capitalize on the credit as that wave would have needed to have happened in mid to late May at the absolute latest.

Because of this spike in inventory, it is tough to tell how much of the decrease in average prices after the tax credit expired was due to a lack of buyers. But I am less concerned with the decrease in prices, and am far more interested in the rebounding of prices toward the end of 2010. Not only did this rebound occur only a few months after the end of the tax credit, but it occurred during the slower late fall/early winter months. In short, overall this is another show of strength and resilience in Arlington Real Estate. (see my caveat after the chart…)



So, here is my caveat. If you compare overall closed sales in 2010, verses closes sales in 2009, specifically in May you will see that there were slightly more closed sales in 2009. This leaves me to wonder, did the tax credit actually help the detached single family home market in Arlington at all?

Arlington Close Sales Since 2006

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